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P.4. Demography, p39.

 World population:

Population static

Until 1750 stable(728m), estimation for 2000- 6200m. Estimated final pop.-10 billions.

People growing older, fewer children and thus workforce, more pensions, economy less productive. More boys born. When population grows, more labour available and market is bigger. The projected population , need to be taken care very seriously, you can't predict e.g. when new pill is invented.

TR Malthus (1766-1834)

Wrote that population grows exponentially whereas other factors of productions linearly.

Predicted that the world population would grow until a war and then decline and then start all over. Optimum level: when most people are starving to death= subsistence equilibrium. This didn't happen in UK, because people went to Australia, technology improved(more food) and family limitations.

Factors affecting the growth of population

1.    Birth rate

                  attitude to artificial birth control

                  social and religious attitudes to birth control

                  whether the women want career or not

                  sex ratio

                  number marriages

                  age of marriage and the size of families

2.    Death rate

                  medical care


                  public health (clean drinking water)


                  preventive medicine (injections, vaccination)


3.    Migration



Main points of the population.

Growth- is growing, death rate(per1000in year), Infant morality rate declines, impr. in medicine, birth rate, parents want to enjoy high life standard , family limitation , IMR declines, no need to worry, children not any more investment , natural increase , migration , a digression in world population.

Optimum population, The age structure(-15-65+)  the changes occur gradually, As the distribution of the population changes, demand changes, Such changes require factors of production, not easy to find, can't convert schools to hospitals, and people don't want to change work place , If the dependent age group grows, there is a greater burden on the working population(+tax), Changes in capital market(people live in savings).

Working population(15-65)-All in civilian employment + army + registered unemployment, Recently increase , Numbers of females working is increased(decl. of manufacture, more jobs for women) , Increasing self-employment (unempl. start relied to savings, Gov. help), different statistics.

The UK population

1.   Growth since 1801 and changes since World War II

Fist measurement was in 1801 (10.5m)then population increased rapidly 12% per decade till 1870, because death rate fell. At 1870 people started to limit their families. After that has been fluctuating 5-1% per decade. There was a baby-boom from 1945-1965, because people started to get married early. After 1970ies population fell, because no. of marriages fell. Population was 56m in 1991 and estimation for 2001 is 55.5m.

2.   Age distribution

More pensioners, less school-leavers, more people go first time to school, greater dependency rate.

3.   Sex distribution

Births in UK are fairly equal(105:100). More women in retirement (3:2).

4.   Geographical distribution

Overall density: 238persons/km2, one of the highest. Despite, there are great regional variances. Most live in south, people move from North-England and Scotland to South & East-England. Population is urban, but moving more to sub-urban.

5.   Occupational distribution.

Working force-between 16-65(60), includes unemployed. The percentage of women working is the highest in developed countries. Workforce was 48% divide between industries:

                  primary-extraction + fishing, decreases, UK extremely low %age(deindustrialisation)

                  secondary-manufacture, was North-Sea oil

                  tertiary-services (62%), in UK now tourism

6.   Likely future developments.

Financial and professional services, movement to North again (cheaper, no need to be in London to do business). Technical improvements have to continue, otherwise the population grows too large (diminishing returns). The optimum population differs from country to country and is measured by GNP per head. Too much population is also bad for environment.

UK is not yet over-populated, but may well become so in near future.

UK has higher birth rate, divorce rate, single mothers in Europe.

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