Demography

Population static-Until 1750 stable(728m),estimation for 2000- 6200m.Estimated final pop.-10 billions

People growing older,fewer children&thus workforce,more pensions,economy less productive

More boys born

When population grows,more labour available&market is bigger

The projected population ,need to be taken care very seriously,you can't predict e.g.when new pill is invented

 

 TR Malthus(1766-1834)

Wrote that population grows exponentially whereas other factors of productions linearly

Predicted that the world population would grow until a war&then decline&then start all over.Optimum level: when most people are starving to death= subsistence equilibrium.This didn't happen in UK,because people went to Australia,technology improved(more food)and family limitations

 

 Factors affecting the growth of population

1.    Birth rate

attitude to artificial birth control

social&religious attitudes to birth control

whether the women want career or not

sex ratio

number marriages

age of marriage&the size of families

2.    Death rate

medical care

food

public health(clean drinking water)

housing

preventive medicine(injections,vaccination)

war

3.    Migration

Emigration

Immigration

Infant morality rate declines-impr.in medicine,birth rate,parents want to enjoy high life standard,family limitation,children not investment

As the distribution of the population changes,demand changes,Such changes require factors of production,not easy to find,can't convert schools to hospitals,&people don't want to change work place

If the dependent age group grows,there is a greater burden on the working population(+tax),Changes in capital market(people live in savings)

Working population(15-65)-All in civilian employment + army + registered unemployment

Recently increase-Numbers of females working is increased(decl.of manufacture,more jobs for women),Increasing self-employment(unempl.start relied to savings,Gov.help),different statistics

 

 The UK population

1.    Growth since 1801&changes since World War II

Fist measurement was in 1801(10.5m)then population increased rapidly 12% per decade till 1870,because death rate fell.At 1870 people started to limit their families.After that has been fluctuating 5-1% per decade.There was a baby-boom from 1945-1965,because people started to get married early.After 1970ies population fell,because no.of marriages fell.Population was 56m in 1991&estimation for 2001 is 55.5m

2.    Age distribution

More pensioners,less school-leavers,more people go first time to school,greater dependency rate

3.    Sex distribution

Births in UK are fairly equal(105:100).More women in retirement(3:2)

4.    Geographical distribution

Overall density: 238persons/km2,one of the highest.Despite,there are great regional variances.Most live in south,people move from North-England&Scotland to South & East-England.Population is urban,but moving more to sub-urban

5.    Occupational distribution

Working force-between 16-65(60),includes unemployed.The percentage of women working is the highest in developed countries.Workforce was 48% divide between industries:

a.primary-extraction + fishing,decreases,UK extremely low %age(deindustrialisation)

b.secondary-manufacture,was North-Sea oil

c.tertiary-services(62%),in UK now tourism

6.    Likely future developments

Financial&professional services,movement to North again(cheaper,no need to be in London to do business).Technical improvements have to continue,otherwise the population grows too large(diminishing returns).The optimum population differs from country to country&is measured by GNP per head.Too much population is also bad for environment

UK is not yet over-populated,but may well become so in near future

UK has higher birth rate,divorce rate,single mothers in Europe