Murray is American writer&researcher of public policy.His predictions of worsening situation of welfare state were remarcably true for US&now he is applying same ideas to UK

First book in 89 based on 87&this second in 94 based on 92,both were published in Sunday times.response for recent article is more favourable

Concentrates on UK underclass&mainly on three aspects: crime,economic inactivity&ilmcy.latter is his main concern although he points out that crime rate is rising at about 40% per 5 years&economic inactivity rose as well from 9.6% to 13.3% in 5 years(among men).16.5 millions are now economically inactive with 2.2 millions of them searching for job.This figure has been rising&some consider at least part of these people should be considered as unemployed.Unempl was 7.9% in February,&it has been falling for some years,unlike ilmcy,first contradiction

CM combines stats for ilmcy& number of persons in social group V in different counties&finds good correlation.This can mean that as poor communities gather,social pattern changes& one-parent family will become norm.two-parent families will increasingly leave council houses,richer people will move out of problem areas,this will affect local businesses,who can go to liquidation&squatting will occur in their premises etc

Changes in society are sensational&should not be ignored,but faced

They have arisen due to wrong welfare policy discouraging acceptance of low-paid jobs.English society together with public mood( public idea that girls get pregnant deliberately to get flat etc.)are also changing

Eg as illegitimate boys grow up,they have no archetype to accept from father&are more likely to have illegitimate children as their fathers did.It is hard for these illegitimate children to break out of vicious circle as ilmcy seems to concentrate in particular districts& society in these districts is shaped differently

current welfare policy favours single parents&unemployed people.That will create temptation for couples to remain secretly cohabiting,but not to marry,in order to live in free council house&get benefits.But mean life of cohabiting is 5 times less than that of marriages,so children in this case are more likely to be left with one parent

This trend can be due to various Acts making divorce easier&due to changing attitude towards marriage

CM quotes stats that show how ilmcy has reached to 30% in very short time after 60-s.By comparing English to American blacks he suggests that by 2003 50% of marriages should be out of wedlock.He then goes on to predict that ilmcy among lower classes is already bigger than stats show&it will rise exponentially whereas rise in ilmcy among class 1 will level off

Might predict that rich can afford to marry&split,but surprisingly divorce rate is higher in group 5 leaving state welfare policy only thing to blame for ilmcy

On basis of that CM thinks that class system in UK will change dramatically(although he did some miscalculations in interpreting present one)leaving upper middle class in better shape(he calls them New Victorians)and forming New Rabble from lower classes

View Supporting new class system is that cultural aspects are shortly passing fashion while material aspects affect poor most.fashion passes&after while marriage is popular again.rich will marry,but poor will calculate costs that rise due to reduction in benefits&stay cohabiting

No data supports,although it is more likely that poor parents will be faced with poverty trap( unempl benefit being larger than wage poor can obtain when they are working)and they are more likely to cheat welfare system as returns in%terms are higher.At present it seems economically stupid to marry

As solution CM simply thinks two-parent family should be restored& problems will solve by themselves.He reaches this decision from comparison of todays world with Victorian era where divorce was impossible&thus ilmcy was low.Then crime was also low&so was unempl,although it fluctuated quite widely

CM finds two solutions

minimalist solution is to make benefits for married couples at least as large as those for married.This would not change attitudes of people towards favouring marriage&would be very expensive.CM argues that state cannot be in position of giving aid to people as their parents&friends do,because state can be cheated very easily

maximalists' solution would be to economically penalise single women,so that they would demand marriage from men.This would mean removing benefits altogether.As social group 5 is considering marriage more from economic grounds this policy should work effectively among them.He does not actually say that,but I got impression that illegimate children would have to live in very deep poverty&starve,possibly to death,so in theory it would solv problem of next generation growing like their parents

CM thinks that attainment of full empl should also increase marriages as males will become more attractive.There is high correlation between unempl&ilmcy,but recent stats looking at changes in empl are not supporting that view