Game
theory is a distinct and interdisciplinary approach to the study of human
behavior. The disciplines most involved in game theory are mathematics,
economics and the other social and behavioral sciences. Game theory (like
computational theory and so many other contributions) was founded by the great
mathematician John von Neumann. The first important book was The Theory of
Games and Economic Behavior, which von Neumann wrote in collaboration with the
great mathematical economist, Oskar Morgenstern. Certainly Morgenstern brought
ideas from neoclassical economics into the partnership, but von Neumann, too,
was well aware of them and had made other contributions to neoclassical
economics.
Since
the work of John von Neumann, "games" have been a scientific metaphor
for a much wider range of human interactions in which the outcomes depend on
the interactive strategies of two or more persons, who have opposed or at best
mixed motives. Among the issues discussed in game theory are
1) What
does it mean to choose strategies "rationally" when outcomes depend
on the strategies chosen by others and when information is incomplete?
2) In
"games" that allow mutual gain (or mutual loss) is it
"rational" to cooperate to realize the mutual gain (or avoid the
mutual loss) or is it "rational" to act aggressively in seeking
individual gain regardless of mutual gain or loss?
Rationality
The key
link between neoclassical economics and game theory was and is rationality.
Neoclassical economics is based on the assumption that human beings are
absolutely rational in their economic choices. Specifically, the assumption is
that each person maximizes her or his rewards -- profits, incomes, or
subjective benefits -- in the circumstances that she or he faces. This
hypothesis serves a double purpose in the study of the allocation of resources.
First, it narrows the range of possibilities somewhat. Absolutely rational
behavior is more predictable than irrational behavior. Second, it provides a
criterion for evaluation of the efficiency of an economic system. If the system
leads to a reduction in the rewards coming to some people, without producing
more than compensating rewards to others (costs greater than benefits, broadly)
then something is wrong. Pollution, the overexploitation of fisheries, and
inadequate resources committed to research can all be examples of this.
In
neoclassical economics, the rational individual faces a specific system of
institutions, including property rights, money, and highly competitive markets.
These are among the "circumstances" that the person takes into
account in maximizing rewards. The implications of property rights, a money
economy and ideally competitive markets is that the individual needs not
consider her or his interactions with other individuals. She or he needs
consider only his or her own situation and the "conditions of the
market." But this leads to two problems. First, it limits the range of the
theory. Where-ever competition is restricted (but there is no monopoly), or
property rights are not fully defined, consensus neoclassical economic theory
is inapplicable, and neoclassical economics has never produced a generally
accepted extension of the theory to cover these cases. Decisions taken outside
the money economy were also problematic for neoclassical economics.
Game
theory was intended to confront just this problem: to provide a theory of
economic and strategic behavior when people interact directly, rather than
"through the market." In game theory, "games" have always
been a metaphor for more serious interactions in human society. Game theory may
be about poker and baseball, but it is not about chess, and it is about such
serious interactions as market competition, arms races and environmental
pollution. But game theory addresses the serious interactions using the
metaphor of a game: in these serious interactions, as in games, the
individual's choice is essentially a choice of a strategy, and the outcome of
the interaction depends on the strategies chosen by each of the participants.
On this interpretation, a study of games may indeed tell us something about
serious interactions. But how much?
In
neoclassical economic theory, to choose rationally is to maximize one's
rewards. From one point of view, this is a problem in mathematics: choose the
activity that maximizes rewards in given circumstances. Thus we may think of
rational economic choices as the "solution" to a problem of
mathematics. In game theory, the case is more complex, since the outcome
depends not only on my own strategies and the "market conditions,"
but also directly on the strategies chosen by others, but we may still think of
the rational choice of strategies as a mathematical problem -- maximize the
rewards of a group of interacting decision makers -- and so we again speak of
the rational outcome as the "solution" to the game.
Anthony
Downs' An Economic Theory of Democracy delineates the self-interest axiom of
politicians who sets re-election as their primary objective function, and
explains for political failures that yield inept public policy. In theory, the
single-minded elected official will attempt to appease and provide services to
well informed and influential voters, and will rationally concentrate on
particularized legislation that quickly provides constituency appreciation.
Thus, the general problems plaguing society will be overlooked. Downs claims
that this self-interested ideology breeds catastrophe as budget maximizing
bureaucrats, well-organized interest groups, and rationally ill-informed voters
will act collectively in creating a political chaos.
If
public choice theory is correct, then a governmental bureaucracy should have
little interest in efficiency. In reality, the theory may be guilty of being
too extreme, but there is considerable inefficiency within government agencies
that has become a common characteristic. Economists point to the monopoly
possessed by many of these agencies that provides no incentive to operate at
cost efficient levels. Also, the allocative wisdom of government is quite
dubious as they have often caused harmful misallocation effects. Optimism by
economists for the effectiveness of government is diminishing, and "even
when economists believe that a good case can be made for government
intervention, they have come to realize that the intervention will not
necessarily be the kind they envision or could defend."
Another
purpose of government in public choice theory is re-distribution that calls
forth equity concerns. In this area, economists are more enthusiastic about the
potential effectiveness of government, but disapprove of governmental
interference in market prices, such as minimum wage, rent controls, and
subsidies that distort true values and preferences. In view of this stance,
cash payments are preferred over in-kind benefits like food stamps and rental
credit because the poor will not be compelled to purchase "lesser
goods." The overall consensus among economists on both sides is that
government needs to play a role in balancing an inequitable and uncaring market
system, but efficiency must not be forsaken because the costs associated with
this mistake will create new and unwanted problems.
Although
necessary at times, active governmental intervention worries economists. The
University of Chicago economist Gary Becker wrote, "In modern economies,
profits often are determined more by government subsidies, taxes, and
regulations than by traditional management or entrepreneurial skills."
According to Becker, excess regulations result in vigorous rent-seeking
behavior by all actors within a market economy that eventually corrupts
government officials and steers the economy and the political system down the
path of inefficiency. Becker's article is a good example of the skepticism that
is prevalent among economists when the activities of government and the market
become unreasonably intertwined, and he reinforces the claims by James Buchanan
and Anthony Downs that the actors within the body of government have a tendency
to behave according to their self-interested needs by pandering to specific
interest groups.
Increasingly,
political scientists are using game theory to analyze strategic interactions
across many different political settings. Each of the four major subfields, to
differing degrees, has seen game theoretic concepts enter its vocablulary, and
students entering the profession will need to understand the potential and
limits of game theory. This course aims to give students an entry-level
understanding of the basic concepts of game theory, and how these concepts have
been applied to the study of political phenomena. Students should leave the
course with a working knowledge of games of complete information, to the point
where they can state a model correctly, solve it, and elucidate some of the
theory's empirical implications.
Institutional
analysis lies behind much of modern positive political theory, so we will
combine our study of pure game thoery with a study of certain key political
institutions. The institutions we will be examining within this course are
legislatures, legislative committees, courts, and treaties, among others. Among
the topics to be studied within these "institutional laboratories"
are strategic voting, coalition formation, agenda setting, and the provision of
public goods. This is primarily a methods course. I will focus my attention on
providing you with the tools to analyze systematically strategic situations in
politics, broadly defined. The policy making examples we examine are meant to
be illustrative, rather than providing the primary focus of the course.
Therefore, the course is divided into sections along analytical methods lines,
not substantive policy area or institutional lines.
political
economy
A
branch of the social sciences that takes as its principal subject of study the
interrelationships between political and economic institutions and
processes. That is, political
economists are interested in analyzing and explaining the ways in which various
sorts of government affect the allocation of scarce resources in society through their laws and
policies as well as the ways in which the nature of the economic system and the
behavior of people acting on their economic interests affects the form of government and the kinds of
laws and policies that get made.
What
economists call game theory psychologists call the theory of social situations,
which is an accurate description of what game theory is about. Although game
theory is relevant to parlor games such as poker or bridge, most research in
game theory focuses on how groups of people interact. There are two main
branches of game theory: cooperative and noncooperative game theory.
Noncooperative game theory deals largely with how intelligent individuals
interact with one another in an effort to achieve their own goals. That is the
branch of game theory I will discuss here.