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Reddaway Seasonal Adjustment method

1.      Arrange the data in a table by quarters and years.

2.      Calculate the average of quarters for years 1 and 5. Substract 5 from  and divide the result by 16. Call it net upward movement over 16 quarters, not 20. And get the average.

3.      calculate grand mean for every quarter

4.      Elliminate num by adding 1.5 num to Q1, 0.5 to Q2, -0.5 to Q3, -1.5 to Q5 - get the adjusted average.

5.      Calculate the mean of quartely grand means.

6.      Divide the quartely average by the whole average and get the seasonal pattern

7.      Divide original figgures by the seasonal pattern to get the seasonally adjusted data.

 

year \ Quarte

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Average

1

100

70

60

90

80

2

120

85

70

110

3

150

105

85

130

4

170

125

100

155

5

190

150

120

180

160

average

146

107

87

133

Grand-118.3

Net-ward 06ve0ent = 80, Average num=5

Adjust num

1.5x5

0.5x5

-0.5

-1.5

Ratio to gran

1.29

0.92

0.71

1.06

1.0(seasonal

Estimation

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

YEAR 1

77

75.6

83.9

84.8

2

92.4

91.8

97.9

103.7

 

It is essential to have the same number of quarters in every year. (ie not only first)

Awkward factors like easter

Changes in practice - holidays arrangement with Bank holidays

Do not use for more than 5 years

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